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servantmk1042 03-Jan-20, 04:27	bevo_xv Comprehensive and very helpful. Not castling into the opponent's attack has many times been very troublesome for me. Your suggestions should be very helpful if I pay attention to what is really going on. On the queen's side I usually find myself needing to move the outside pawn up one square before too long to avoid losing it. I try to have as much protection on that side without being too static. Thanks. Paul
5imon 07-Jan-20, 11:38	0-0! bevo_xv has given some excellent advice, which is well worth following. Very strong players get to bend the rules, however, and here is an interesting game of Magnus Carlsen back in 2007 in a blindfold game against Sergey Karjakin after 19.Rxh7. Carlsen takes the opportunity to castle. He is now attacking both the rook on h7 and the knight on g5. It looks as though Sergey can save the piece with 20. Rh6 Bxg5 21. Rxg6+ winning back the piece but 21...Kh7 22. Rxg5 Rf1# Here is the game in full www.chessgames.com 14...Bd4+ is also a good find in a blindfold game.
pawntificator 07-Jan-20, 11:49	I just lost this game and did not castle. The mistake was not related, but castling would have allowed me to fight back. As it was, my king was exposed and ultimately led to my defeat game
bevo_xv 15-Jan-20, 09:38	Statistics on castling I decided to take the time to answer the original question of this thread: "Is there statistical evidence that anyone is aware of overall that castling makes the outcome of a game generally more successful than not castling ? " For this exercise, I used the ChessBase 2020 Mega Database with games through November, 2019. I selected only games for years 2010-2019 with both players' ELO rating over 2000 (about the rating of the lowest Masters). This resulted in 1,401,255 games and the statistics on castling follow: White castles kingside ( O-O ); 1,101,563 games (78.6%) White won 36.2%, 35.9% were drawn and Black won 27.8% White castle queenside ( O-O-O ) 161,024 games (11.5%) White won 41.1%, 28.8% were drawn and Black won 30.1% White does not castle 133,668 games (9.9%) White won 31.8%, 39.4% were drawn and Black won 28.8% I did not analyze Black castling data. Based on this analysis, it appears castling may provide a 5% advantage over not castling.
mikemate 15-Jan-20, 14:29	My inclination is that Black castles Queenside at a very low percentage.
lord_shiva 15-Jan-20, 16:00	Castling Queen Side 41%? So white has an even bigger advantage castling queen side than king side. Really interesting.
bevo_xv 16-Jan-20, 12:49	More castling statistics I bit the bullet and went all in on the castling statistics issue. I am still using the ChessBase 2020 Mega Database filtered for games 2010-2019 with both players rated ELO 2000 and above (lower level Master and above). This resulted in a sample of 1,401,255 games. White castled O-O 78.6% of those games with results W-36.2%; D-35.9%; B-27.8% White castled O-O-O 11.5% of the games with results W-41.1%; D-28.8%; B-30.1% White did not castle 9.9% of those games with results W-31.8%; D-39.4%; B-28.8% Black castled O-O 80.6% of those games with results W-35.9%; D-35.5%; B-28.5% Black castled O-O-O 6.1% of those games with results W-38.7%; D-30.2%; B-31.2% Black did not castle 13.3% of those games with results W-37.7%; D-37.4%; B-24.8% I further analyzed the nine possible combinations of O-O, O-O-O, and no castling by each side: White O-O, Black O-O 970,470 games with results W-35.7%; D-36.4%; B-27.9% White O-O, Black O-O-O 42,935 games with results W-40.4%, D-27.1%; B-32.5% White O-O, Black none 89,658 games with results W-41.0%; D-34.5%; B-24.5% White O-O-O, Black O-O 92,249 games with results W-41.2%; D-26.5%; B-32.3% White O-O-O, Black O-O-O 27,781 games with results W-38.5%; D-34.2%; B-27.3% White O-O-O, Black none 39.494 games with results W-42.3%; D-30.3%; B-27.4% White none, Black O-O 67,697 games with results W-33.0%; D-35.0%; B-32.0% White none, Black O-O-O 13,961 games with results W-34.1%; D-30.6%; B-35.3% White none, Black none 57,010 games with results W-29.8%; D-46.9%; B-23.3% In my opinion, this data shows a benefit to castling in most games. Beyond the numbers, however, it is important to remember to castle only when it is the best move for you to make at that time. Castling should not be chosen for your move just because the statistics say you should. Each turn should involve the evaluation of candidate moves, and if castling is evaluated as the best move for that position, then you should castle. I look forward to any discussions about this analysis.
pawntificator 16-Jan-20, 19:41	Thank you sir, those are very interesting statistics. I wonder if a statistician will do a statistical analysis. Your comment about separating the decision to castle from these numbers is very important to remember. Overall, it looks like the most important thing is to have the white pieces. Ha ha.
lord_shiva 16-Jan-20, 20:14	Have the White Pieces   While chess may not be solved, and over half of grand master games end in draw, it seems inarguable the first player to move has an advantage.
servantmk1042 17-Jan-20, 04:55	bevo_xv Thank you for that analysis. I tend to focus on castling within the first 10 moves now, though I am not locked into it. Your statistics I believe will be helpful to me in the long run.
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