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euro_pop_legend 12-May-23, 14:13	For advanced players:Augmenting psychological draw rate probabilities This thread is mainly designed for players north of 2100,but I see no harm in the lesser rated players taking a look at some of the ploys that I will address in this thread.At the moment,there are no 2100+or higher rated in the club(except me),but one day i'm sure there will be.So,I will give a few more answers and reasons here that are not normally necessary with 2100+ players in order to make more sense to the lesser rated players who decide to read on. Ok.Now,why would any player want to play for a draw,rather than a win?Well,I can think of several reasons.In some tourneys for example(especially OTB),a particular player may only need a half point,not a full point to win the tourney.In correspondence chess(like GK),the event may be similar OR a player may find himself up against another opponent who's rating strength is hundreds or even a thousand points above their own rating.If this is the case,(and it is on many occasions),you have to think carefully and cautiously about which way you plan to proceed with that "Y"in the road before your first move! You must ask yourself....do I want to go for broke,throw all my chips into the pot and play against this guy with a monster rating 300 points(or more) above my own rating with the hope,dream and prayer that I will beat this monster? OR,would I be thrilled or content with DRAWING with this player if I could,still gaining some rating points and a bit of bragging rights that I beat this master(for example)?You must consider that,yes,you could win,BUT the chances are statistically much less that you WILL WIN against that player hundreds of rating points above you.So,perhaps drawing IS BETTER than losing!?Perhaps trying to draw may actually be easier than trying to win? In reality,drawing IS easier than winning for the player who is about to embark playing against the "monster",even if it was say,a 1700 player vs a 2300 rated.Or a 2100 rated against a 2500 rated. On the higher levels of play,above 2300,draws are more common because the players are playing more perfectly,understand theory better,have better opening books and basically have their "act"together! But,there is a special "subgroup"of players who know when to go for a draw and when to go for a win.I've seen it a few times on GK and other sites.This "group"of players are more than happy to draw with others rather than play more aggressively or risky against an opponent who may be 400-600 points above them in rating.So,playing it more "safer"seems more logical! Let me make it clear,just like in gambling,there is no sure guarantee of drawing with a much stronger opponent who understands the depths of theory,longer tactical lines and advanced positional theory at levels exceeding the lesser rated players abilities.There are,however,methods and roadways of travel that can augment the probability of creating a draw state from early in the game to approx mid game. Let me cover the psychological part of the draw augmentation first,in my next post.
euro_pop_legend 12-May-23, 14:14	Key factors in the augmentation of draw probability psychology Deeper understanding check list: 1.Many higher rated players play the highest statistical winning opening lines... this is factorial #1 in understanding what they do.How they do it is by using high quality books such as Houdini,Hiarcs,Fritz,Rybka and others.There is a way to isolate the opening book program to list games by win ratio vs past player game ratings.This gives that player a much more concrete playing platform to add in that perfect opening book play from move #1 to as long as move # 40 or 50.Once they are "set up" with that perfect book move to midgame,this will make their job easier to win or draw,especially IF their opponent is not using any strong opening book or none at all. 2.Many of these 2200-2500 players also have larger number of games,say 50+ or more that they feel more comfortable in playing due to the way their high quality book has developed the game for them in advance.This makes them feel a bit more comfortable in extending their game play,so that even if they lose one or two games,even against a much lesser rated player,it will not change their rating at all in the long run after those other higher probable wins or draws finish out after those 50 games are played out. 3.Leaning a bit more towards the strong player that has a larger amount of games in progress,those players are only human!They want to finish the games out as soon as possible in order to go on to the next group of games.Many higher rated players do not possess the inner patience that they actually believe they have!If they think,for example,that their opponent has matched "wits"with them via an opening book that they suspect is on par with their quality book,it will be very evident from approx move #30 or so,especially if both sides have played only the HIGHEST stat lines in that opening book.This will many times YIELD A DRAW LIKE STATE of EQUALITY.This is why,many times if you analyze 2200-2600 rated past games on GK,many of them end in draws early!Both players realize(or at least the higher rated player realizes)that the game looks very = and thus,drawish in character,even though there is much play left in the game...thus draws are agreed upon.Those agreed upon draws may very well be SUGGESTED or ASKED by the lesser rated player,even,say,an 1800 player vs a 2300 player.If the conditions are just right,and the higher rated player wants to move on to his other 50 games,he may very well agree to a draw,without attempting to engage a long series of deeper strategic time consuming thought that will probably be a waste of his time under this state of game equality. So how does the lower rated player get into this zone of equality and psychological draw augmentation with another player hundreds of rating points above them? 4 key ways: 1.Profile analysis ahead of time,before challenging or accepting a challenge from this very strong player.Is his draw rate high,close to 50% or more?Is he playing a larger amount of games or just 4 or 5 games?Picking a high rated player that accepts your challenge(rated,preferably) that is playing more than 40 games at one time can be advantageous to the lesser rated opponent.He has a higher potential to make a minor error in his opening book with the rush of all the other games.He may choose to use a slightly less common opening book move that is "ok",but may not be as superior as the more common higher stat line move.This opens up the doorway for the lesser rated opponent to equalize easier and psychologically entice the stronger opponent to accept a draw when using #2: 2.Using a superior book,never once even remotely considering the GK book.This can be accomplished in several ways.The book should be a high quality book and up to date,not years old.Even a book that is only 1 year old,is disadvantageous.High rated players above 2200 usually invest in high quality books.I know this from comparing MY moves(TA)to those of my past 2200-2600 opponents.I can clearly see that they are utilizing only the top cutting edge move lines with the stat base.If the lower rated player matches move for move on the top stat lines,this will many times equalize the game to move 30 to 50 deep into the midgame. From that position,many tactics become much more nullified,and additional long term strategy is,or appears to be more hopeless than promising given the equal position and usually mirror like amount of pieces on the board.Part B of this would be to investigate the stronger players past game history and look for games that are shorter than others but drew!Especially those games that are more deeply embedded in the opponents game history!Even 2300+ opponents fail to always look into their past game records of draws,being that they have so many!Wins and losses,yes,but not always the draws...remember that! 3.The third key is most critical:Picking the opening or opening defense that has the HIGHEST DRAW rates from past game history,not just on GK,but in world history.This takes experience and knowledge.But let me list just a few of the highest probable draw state games among masters,senior masters and GMs.These following openings relative to a draw state can also apply to lower rated players as well,but due to the unpredictability of far less perfect play(like a 1500 playing a 1700 player)the draw stats are not as accurate. 4.Combining a superior book + a drawish opening/opening defense!This is the MAGIC RECIPE to enhance the lesser rated player to achieve a draw!!!!Also,make SURE that you prove to them that YOU HAVE A SUPERIOR BOOK!How?Lots of conditional moves,that's how!REMEMBER THIS,IT IS CRITICAL!Show them that your sword is as sharp as theirs!!!! If you can apply these openings or opening defenses,you are on your way to that draw against the monster that you never though you could even have a chance to draw with: 1.Petrov Defense.One of the best drawing weapons for black.The mirrored symmetrical moves can produce equality very fast.Combine that with a top notch opening book,and it is a strong probability that you can draw with almost any rating,even if you were 1500 and played a 2200! 2.Exchange Variation of the French. 2.d4,d5 3.exd5,exd5 is a simple continuation that usually gains no advantage. 3.Exchange var of the Ruy Lopez.Fischer used this variation,but refutations since the 1960's have come about through more cutting edge theory and thus the draw rate is much higher than other variations.Black usually obtains a Bishop pair and equalized development in compensation for his doubled pawns. From chess world,but I agree with these,for the most part: (Other higher % draw rate games below): Bogo-Indian Defense 42% draw rate Queen's Indian Defense 42% Petroff's Defense 39% Four Knight's Defense 39% Grunfeld Defense 37% Nimzo Indian 37% Queen's Gambit 36% Benko Opening 35% Three Knight's Defense 35% Reti opening 37%(incorporating the Barcza system 1.Nf3,d5 2.g3) So,if you can manage to get yourself into any of the above openings or opening defenses and have a really good strategy of profile investigation,a good opening book that runs deep into midgame(like move 30 or more) and combine your opening book in conjunction with the styles above....your chances of drawing are much higher in probability against that super strong player than playing the opening/opening defenses that are more advantageous for your opponent. A fairly accurate assessment of the best win or losing for black or white is in the link below.Those games should be technically avoided!Why?Because this thread is about trying to DRAW with a much superior strong player...not try to throw all your chips on the table against a strong professional player and expect to win!Sure,its possible,but you do indeed have a higher probability of drawing than winning...which is better than losing!And using the table below,the games listed above and my advice,should send you to draw heaven against some of the GK monsters you never though you had a prayer against! In summary,there is nothing wrong with attempting to draw with a much stronger opponent!Just obtaining a draw with someone 400-1000 rating points above you(especially if they are masters or higher) is a feat within itself! Trust me,many master and senior masters have no qualms with accepting a draw against much lesser rated players if they see that the game is deep and the position is very equal and drawish looking,but not a forced draw!They are happy many times to move on to the next game,just figuring that they did something wrong to weaken their play a bit to allow YOU to draw.Little do they know that you have ARMED YOURSELF with TA's tasty recipe of psychological draw ploys that FORCED them to accept that draw in a subconscious way! ------------------------------------- TA Also,added to the above posts.... One more strategy is to choose 2 day games over 3 day and plan them to start about 4 weeks before a major holiday.I mentioned this in another post.Sounds strange and laughable,right?Now how on earth could the timing of starting a game increase the draw rate possibility?Maybe even the loss rate of your opponent? From extensive experience and research and among many professional chess circles,it is a well known fact that in correspondence chess,there is a higher frequency of draws and losses in and around the holiday season!No,this is no fantasy of mine or joke. Drinks,good times,family mingling,rush traffic,travel delays,expense pressures,emotions,anxiety,tiredness and even depression during the holiday season can all play a part(and does)in how a chess game can develop.There are a higher number of time-outs during the holiday season for one thing.And if the game was played in accordance to the thoughts in the posts above,then there is a much higher probability of your opponent agreeing to a draw,just to get back to the festivities!He may even time-out! This is timed event chess theory.I tend to load up my games about 3 to 4 weeks prior to Christmas, New Years or Thanksgiving.Has this strategy worked for me?As sure as the Sun will rise the next day!Added time pressure with 2 day over 3 day during the holiday rush time is also a good psy move. This "hyper psychology"is not as far fetched as you may believe and has basis in fact,not fiction.Its just another one of those pro chess "secrets"that few players ever heard of,so of course,they will automatically believe that this is a fairy tale.Lets hope most of the masters and senior masters on GK have no idea of this(and many do not).Hopefully one of the 2300 players will be on their 4th martini on Christmas Eve when you ask them for a draw with a very = position at that exact time due to your pro opening book and playing a Petrov defense.He just might think....ahhh....its Christmas Eve and i'm in the giving spirit and a bit drunk...heck give this 1500 player the draw he asked for!Burp!!! Trust me,not far fetched at all.I have seen the evidence. TA

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